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Will Bitcoin's rise end in a further decline before the halving begins?

The price of Bitcoin surpassed $60,000 yesterday following record net inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This increase has led analysts to question whether Bitcoin is following a parabolic pattern that occurs every cycle.

Last week, two analysts highlighted how Bitcoin's price has in recent weeks mimicked the parabolic rally seen in previous sessions.

Analysts See a Repeat of Bitcoin’s Parabolic Rally

Cryptocurrency trader Dave the Wave said the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) chart indicates that the previous four-month parabolic cryptocurrency rally pattern is about to repeat itself. The MACD indicator (blue line) shows changes in momentum by checking whether the difference between an asset's 12-period and 26-month exponential moving averages crosses the signal line (orange).

If the difference is above the signal line, it indicates a bullish trend. If the spread is below the signal line, it indicates a bearish pivot.

The MACD line has been established above the signal line for the past few months. At the same time, the shape of the MACD histogram has become parabolic. This suggests a sharp rise in prices soon.

MCAD Chart Shows Parabolic Bitcoin Uptrend

Recently, on-chain analytics expert Kevin Svensson pointed out that... BTC It has reached the so-called “base 3” price. That is, the price at which Bitcoin touches the parabolic trendline, at $45,000. If the price continues to follow this trend, Svensson suggested that it would be possible to double the price to $90,000.

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin reached $60,000. Around the same time, Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital said it was unclear where BTC would go from here.

So far, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs appear to have largely driven prices higher. Yesterday, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $676.8 million. This is a new daily high. To date, ETF providers have raised $6 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Are Bitcoin ETFs the “second half”?

Bitcoin demand from ETF providers is behaving “like the second half,” said Charles Edwards of Capriol Investments. It refers to the Bitcoin price halving in April 2024. Which reduces the number of coins BTC issued for each mined block. Historically, halvings, which occur approximately every four years, have been bullish events for the asset.

AndEdwards pointed out: "The 2024 ETFs also serve as a second half in terms of demand volume. As a result, the 2024/5 season will likely represent a mix of an epic 2017 and a mediocre 2021."

This event, controlled by Bitcoin mining software, halves the number of Bitcoin miners who can earn from broadcast transaction blocks. Starting around April 19, miners will receive 3.125 BTC for each successfully mined block, up from 6.25 BTC currently.

This event occurs approximately every four years and ensures that Bitcoin remains a deflationary currency. Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, the largest holder of Bitcoin, said earlier this year that ETFs and mining would create a double supply and demand shock.

So far, on-chain analysis suggests that the first shock is underway. However, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff says gold's rally could soon lead to a "bubble peak." BeInCrypto contacted Schiff for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Of confidence


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Mohamed CryptoPen

I have been working in international journalism and writing since 2014 and worked as a translator in 2017. I then started working in business journalism in 2019 with and other sites. I was promoted to editor-in-chief of the site in 2020. I write a lot about the evolution of the digital currency and crypto markets and I love the emergence and spread of the new culture across the world. I joined the BeInCrypto Arabic team in 2022 as Editor-in-Chief and I am still learning something new every day.




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