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Has the price of Bitcoin (BTC) passed the correction phase? Maybe not quite

Cryptocurrency markets saw mixed performance on Thursday, with a decline... Bitcoin BTC Price Coinciding with the rise in the value of the US dollar. That pared some of the gains the currency made following statements by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that indicated a less tight approach to monetary policy.

He landed Bitcoin Price (BTC) On Thursday, by about 5% to reach the $64,600 level, after opening above $68,000.

Despite the great optimism about the long-term future of Bitcoin. There is a clear divergence of opinions among market participants on the evolution of the price of Bitcoin in the short and medium term.

The US dollar rises

The weak price performance of BTC is likely due to the recovery of the US dollar. After the Swiss Central Bank announced a surprise interest rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduced the impact of lenient statements by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, which came despite inflation rates rising higher than expected.

Usually gives a higher value US Dollar Index (DXY) Which measures the strength of the dollar against other major currencies Pressure on asset pricesincluding digital currencies.

In an analysis of the reasons for this decision, financial analyst Michael Kao indicated on social media that it was a decision by the Swiss Central Bank. This could reflect market participants' expectations that other major central banks could start cutting interest rates before the US Federal Reserve.

Is the Bitcoin correction wave over?

Over the past few weeks, analysts have had differences of opinion on where Bitcoin price moves next and whether the uptrend will continue.

Market analysis company Swissblock believes that Bitcoin has completed its decline phase. Its exchange rate has touched the target price set by the company, which is between $58,000 and $59,000. This is when I predicted an imminent correction for the currency last week.

Swissblock analyst Henrik Seeberg, in a market update on Thursday, expects “much higher levels” for the Bitcoin price in the coming period.

And he sees Cryptocurrency trader Jelle said that the bottom of the decline seen in the market was formed at the $65,000 level. With the possibility of price stabilization for a period within the current price range.

BTC price needs to surpass the $69,000 level, which is the top of the market cycle in 2021, to kickstart a fresh rally towards higher levels.

JP Morgan Bitcoin is still in the overbought zone despite the recent correction

JP Morgan analysts estimate that... Bitcoin BTC Price It remains in overbought territory, despite the correction operations observed last week.

According to the bank's report, two indicators, namely JPMorgan Bitcoin futures indicators and the price difference between Bitcoin futures and spot price, indicate that the digital currency is still in the overbought zone.

Recent profit-taking operations have not yet been significant.

“Both indicators indicate that Bitcoin remains in the overbought zone despite the sharp correction that occurred last week,” the report said.

The market is very optimistic that Bitcoin prices will rise by the end of the year. This is due to expectations of continued demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs. The money supply will decrease after the expected halving event.

But recent data shows a slowdown in net flows to these countries. Which leaves doubts about the continuity of the money flowing there at the same rate, according to JP Morgan analysts.

“Indeed, as we approach the halving event,” the analysts concluded, “this profit-taking is likely to continue, especially as overbought indicators persist despite last week's correction ".

Last week, analysts expected a decline Bitcoin BTC Price At around $42,000 after the halving, due to lower rewards for miners and higher production costs.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin BTC price could clarify the trend

Divergent Opinions of Analysts Market sentiment often reflects the direction of price movements in a particular market. There is no disagreement on the duration, since the majority expects the price to increase.
But in the short and medium term, the picture is not entirely clear. This is where the role of technical analysis comes, which can help us determine who is in control, the bulls or the bears.

That's why I always repeat I mentioned it bitter, that Bitcoin BTC Price It respects technical levels over average deadlines (1 hour, 4 hours).

I think this point is important in determining entry and exit levels in light of the sharp fluctuations seen in the market.

4-hour chart of Bitcoin BTC price
4-hour chart of Bitcoin BTC price

BTC Price It traded within Fibonacci lines as daily support and resistance levels. The upward trend line is shown in the attached chart.

Technically, as long as the price remains below the 23.6% level around $68,500, the correction wave is not over. To resume the rise, we must cross the peak of $73,500.

In the downtrend, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level at $60,500 as well as the ascending trendline must be broken. Before continuing the decline towards the $52,500 level.
Unless a breakthrough or breakout occurs on one side or the other, price will remain in a confined sideways range between these levels.

Of confidence


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